Method · Sample of work
The method is only worth what the sample shows.
Rather than describe a way of working, here is one piece of it, with the figures anyone can check against the same public files we used.
Four rules
- The source outranks the summary. A public act — a tender result, a licence register, a registry extract — outranks a press report, which outranks a web page. When sources disagree, the disagreement goes in the finding instead of being resolved quietly.
- Every figure keeps its origin. Documents are downloaded, kept locally with a checksum, and cited with the exact page they came from. A number that cannot be traced back does not get used.
- What the record does not say is stated. A published outcome reports what happened, not why. Where the reason is not in the document, no reason is offered.
- Uncertainty is labelled, not softened. Single-source items are marked as such. Gaps are listed as gaps, because a finding you cannot rely on is worse than a shorter one.
Sample: Tanzania, January to August 2026
Market note · 11 August 2026
The bulk procurement window narrowed in May
Tanzania buys its imported fuel through a monthly tender run by the Petroleum Bulk Procurement Agency, and publishes each round: the lots, the volumes, every bidder, and the DAP premium each one offered over the relevant Platts quotation.
Read in sequence, the 2026 rounds show a change that happened between two months.
Through April the tender drew eight to ten international suppliers, with gasoil premiums clustered in a narrow band. From the May round onward the published tables carry a single bidder, the state corporation TPDC, and the premiums move to a different level.
| Round | Bidders | Premium range |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | 10 | 98.500 – 104.000 |
| May 2026 | 1 — TPDC | 147.904 – 266.702 |
| June 2026 | 1 — TPDC | 258.926 – 266.702 |
| August 2026 | 1 — TPDC | 110.000 – 118.393 |
The August round, awarded to TPDC across all lots, covers 98,000 and 65,836 tonnes of gasoil and 32,500 tonnes of Jet A-1, with discharge windows between 21 and 30 August. Jet A-1 is priced at 194.719 USD/MT; in the June round it stood at 272.033.
What the record does not say. It does not say why the international pool stopped appearing after April, and we will not guess. A published tender result reports an outcome, not a decision. Anyone active in that market knows the reason better than a document does.
Why it is worth reading anyway. Two things are useful even without the reason. A recurring outlet of several hundred thousand tonnes a month changed shape in a single round, which matters to whoever was serving it. And the premium range published every month is one of the few openly available reference points for landed cost into East Africa — useful when you are negotiating a cargo that never goes near a tender.
Source. Petroleum Bulk Procurement Agency, United Republic of Tanzania — monthly tender results, published at pbpa.go.tz. Figures read from the published PDF of each round cited. Local copies retained with SHA-256 checksums. Cut-off: 11 August 2026.
This note is published as a sample of method. It is not investment advice, not an offer, and not a recommendation to deal with any company named in it.
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